Poultry Industry News, Comments & More

Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, November 27th 2023.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the December 20th 2023 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports 987.87 million eggs were set over five weeks extending from week ending November 18th through December 16th inclusive. This quantity was down approximately two percent compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the five-week period amounted to 921.81 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 80.3 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier (80.3 percent for the preceding four-week period). Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.80 million chicks placed per week and 1.70 million broilers processed assuming five percent culls and mortality with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th 2023 through December 16th amounted to 9.30 billion chicks, one percent lower than the corresponding period in 2022.

According to the December 21st 2023 edition of USDA Chickens and Eggs pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during November 2023 amounted to 8.21 million, up 7.1 percent (545,000 pullet chicks) from November 2022 and 196,000 pullet chicks or 2.5 percent more than the previous month of October 2023. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 63.37 million on November1st 2023, 2.0 percent higher (1,257,000 hens) than on November 1st 2022.

Broiler Production

As documented in the December 22nd USDA Broiler Market News Report for the processing week ending December 16th 2023, 167.6 million broilers were processed at 6.47 lbs. live. This was 0.5 percent more than the 166.8 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of November 2023 and 1.5 percent less than the 170.2 million processed during the corresponding week in December 2022. Broilers processed in 2023 to date amounted to 8.31 billion, 2.1 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2022.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week was 824.1 million lbs. (374,595 metric tons). This was 0.2 percent more than the 822.6 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in November 2023 and 2.4 percent less than the 844.5 million lbs. during the corresponding week in December 2022. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2023 to date RTC broiler production attained 40.37 million lbs. (18.35 million metric tons). This quantity was 2.2 percent less than the corresponding period in 2022.

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price averaged over the past week were up 13.3 cents per lb. or 11.8 percent compared to the corresponding week in November 2023 at 127.0 cents per lb. The attached USDA figures denotes average prices over three-years.

Leading QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches, strips and nuggets. Inflation is increasing consumer awareness of value with chicken benefitting at the expense of beef and pork

The USDA National benchmark prices in cents per lb. (rounded to nearest cent) are tabulated from the new version of the Broiler Market News Report.

The USDA posted live-weight data for the past week ending December 6th and YTD 2023 were:-

During the week ending December 16th 2023 broilers for QSR and food service (live, 3.6 lb. to 4.3 lb.) represented 18 percent of processed volume compared to 16 percent during the corresponding week in November 2023.

On December 18th 2023 cold storage holdings of processed poultry other than chicken at selected centers amounted to 78,956 lbs. 1.8 percent less than the inventory of 80,428 lbs. on December 1st 2023.

According to the December 22nd 2023 USDA Cold Storage Report, issued monthly, stocks of broiler products as of November 30th 2023 compared to November 30th 2022 showed differences with respect to the following categories:-

• Total Chicken category attained 881.4 million lbs. (400,636 metric tons) corresponding to approximately 1.3 weeks production based on recent weekly RTC output. The November 30th 2023 inventory was down 3.3 percent compared to 911.5 million lbs. (414,297 metric tons) on November 30th 2022 but up 2.7 percent from the previous month of October.
• LegQuarters were down by 27.9 percent to 70.8 million lbs. compared to November 30th 2022 consistent with the data on exports. Inventory was up 5.5 percent from October 31st Given the trend in inventory of leg quarters it is evident that this category continues to be shipped in varying quantities as the principal (97 percent) chicken export product to a number of nations but with approximately 30 percent of this category comprising shipments to China.

• The Breasts and Breast Meat category was down 0.3 percent from November 30th 2022 to 240.5 million lbs. indicating a relatively stable domestic consumer demand despite consumer concern over inflation. November 30th 2023 stocks were 2.0 percent higher than on October 31st 2023 suggesting a slightly lower retail and food service demand for this category despite promotion of chicken sandwiches by QSRs in the face of an increased pattern of eat-at-home consumption.

• Total inventory of dark meat (drumsticks legs, thighs and thigh quarters but excluding leg quarters) decreased 7.2 percent from November 30th 2022 to 60.9 million lbs. This decrease suggests an increase in domestic demand for lower priced dark meat at the expense of white and red meat.

• Wings showed a 13.1 percent decrease from November 30th 2022, contributing to a stock of 68.3 million lbs. This category was 6.1 percent higher than on October 31st 30th Movement in stock over the past 12 months has demonstrated growth in demand for this category. Sales are impacted by competition from “boneless wings.” Increased consumption traditionally associated with significant sports events reduced volume in storage earlier in 2023 hence the progressive increase in unit price from the first quarter onwards.
• The inventory of Paws and Feet was 15.2 percent lower than on November 30th 2022 to 22.8 million lbs. and inventory was 4.5 percent lower than on October 31st Prior to the April 2020 Phase 1 Trade Agreement approximately half of the shipments of paws and feet destined for Hong Kong were landed and transshipped to the Mainland. Data released by the USAPEEC confirmed that during 2022, 483,538 metric tons of paws and feet, comprising 77.7 percent of broiler exports to China were valued at $931 million with a unit price of $1,925 per metric ton. Over the first three quarters of 2023 U.S., exports of paws and feet amounting to 338,309 metric tons comprised 67.5 percent of volume and 73.2 percent of value with a unit price of $1,848 per metric ton, down 4.0 percent from 2022.
• The Other category comprising 376.2 million lbs. on November 30th 2023 was up 3.9 percent from November 30th 2022 but represented a significant 42.7 percent of inventory. The high proportion in the Other category suggests further classification or re-allocation by USDA to the designated major categories.

November 2023 Production

The USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on December 21st covering November 2023 comprised 22 working days. The following values were documented for the month:-

• A total of 760.3 million broilers were processed in November, up 4.2 percent from November 2022;
• Total live weight in November was 5,028 million lbs., down 3.6 percent from November 2022;
• Unit live weight in November was 6.61 lbs., down 0.04 lb. or 0.6 percent from November 2022.
• RTC in November attained 3,810 million lbs., down 3.3 percent from November 2022.
• WOG yield in November was 75.8 percent, up from 75.6 percent in November 2022.
• The proportion marketed as chilled in November 2023 comprised 93.1 percent of RTC output.
• Ante-mortem condemnation as a proportion of live weight attained 0.19 percent during November 2023 compared to 0.20 percent in November 2022.
• Post-mortem condemnations as a proportion of processed mass corresponded to 0.44 percent during November 2023 compared to 0.48 percent in November 2022.

Comments

For 2022 exports of broiler parts and feet combined attained a volume of 3,792,380 metric tons (3,624,657 metric tons in 2021) with a value of $5,218 million ($4,460 million in 2021). Unit value increased 11.9 percent from 2021 to $1,376 per metric ton (including feet) from $1,230.

Mexico has recognized the OIE principle of regionalization after intensive negotiations between SENASICA and U.S. counterpart, the USDA-APHIS assisted by USAPEEC. Provided importing nations adhere to OIE guidelines on regionalization, localized outbreaks of avian influenza and Newcastle disease will affect exports from states with outbreaks in commercial flocks. The response of China, Japan and some other nations is more predictable with bans on a statewide basis. The response by China to outbreaks is influenced more by self-interest than considerations of scientific fact or international trade obligations. Other importing nations have confined restrictions to counties following the WOAH principle of regionalization.

Collectively our NAFTA/USMCA neighbors imported broiler products to the value of $901 million for 2019, $864 million in 2020 and $1,175 million in 2021. For 2022 broiler export value to USMCA attained $1,256 million.

The USDA December projection for RTC broiler production in 2023 will be 46,373 million lbs. with a per capita consumption of 99.8 lbs. Exports amounting to 7,205 million lbs. will represent 15.5 percent of production. The forecast for RTC broiler production in 2024 will be 46,625 million lbs. with a per capita consumption of 99.5 lbs. Exports amounting to 7,245 million lbs. will represent 15.5 percent of production.

Effective mid-December 2023 the fall wave of HPAI has resulted in losses of 2.6 million broilers on 8 farms in four states. A total of 110,000 broiler breeders were depopulated on three farms in three states.