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Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, January 26th 2024

Poult Production and Placement:

The January 12th 2024 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 24.82 million eggs in incubators on January 1st 2024 compared to 27.28 million eggs on January 1st 2023* The January 2024 set was down 9.0 percent (2.46 million eggs) from January 2023 and 0.53 million eggs (2.1 percent) less than the previous month of December 2023.

A total of 21.48 million poults were hatched during December 2023 down 1.37 million poults (6.0 percent) compared to 22.85 million in December 2022*. The December 2023 hatch was down 0.20 million poults (0.9 percent) from the previous month of November 2023.

A total of 19.70 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in December 2023, compared to 21.00 million in December 2022*. The December 2023 placement was 6.0 percent, (1.25 million poults) less than the month of December 2022. This data confirms disposal of 1.79 million poults during the month. Approximately 8.3 percent of the December 2023 hatch was not placed.

For the twelve-month period January 2023 through December 2023 inclusive, 270.85 million poults were hatched and 252.92 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 17.93 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.6 percent of all poults hatched.

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.

Turkey Production:

The January 19th 2024 edition of the Turkey Market News Reports documented the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-

• For the processing week ending January 13th 2024, 1.569 million hens were processed at 15.5 lbs. live. This was 11.1 percent less than the 1.765 million hens processed during the corresponding week in December 2023 and 14.3 percent less than the 1.831 million processed during the corresponding week in January 2024. Hen slaughter year-to-date has attained 2.79 million, 16.9 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2022. 

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for hens over the most recent week was 20.50 million lbs. (9,9317 metric tons). This quantity was 6.6 percent less than the 21.97 million lbs. for corresponding week in December 2023 and 21.2 percent less than the 26.02 million lbs. during the corresponding week in January 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2023 to date RTC hen production attained 36.8 million lbs. (16.72 metric tons). This quantity is 22.7 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.

• For the processing week ending January 13th 2024, 1,887 million toms were processed at 46.2 lbs. live. This was 12.2 percent less than the 2.148 million toms processed during the corresponding week in December 2023 and 2.0 percent less than the 1.925 million during the corresponding week in January 2023. Year-to-date 3.38 million toms have been processed, 4.2 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for toms during the most recent week was 70.1 million lbs. (31,872 metric tons).  This quantity was 8.0 percent more than the 76.2 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in December 2023 and 1.4 percent more than the 69.1 million lbs. during the corresponding week in January 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2023 to date RTC tom production attained 124.7 million lbs. (56.7 metric tons). This quantity is 2.3 percent less than the corresponding period in 2022.

The National average frozen hen price for conventional birds during the past week was 90 cents per lb., up 3 cents per lb. (3.4 percent) from the corresponding week in December 2023 and down 47 cents per lb. from the three-year average of approximately 137 cents per lb. The following prices rounded to nearest cent were documented in the new format report for domestic and export trading on January 19th 2024:-

Inventories:

On January 15th 2024 cold storage holdings at selected centers amounted to 55,755 lbs., 10.2 percent more than the inventory of 50,595 lbs. on January 1st 2024.

The January 24th 2024 edition of the USDA Cold Storage Report issued monthly, documented a total turkey stock of 244.1 million lbs. (110,973 metric tons) on December 31st 2023, equivalent to 1.3 weeks of normal seasonal RTE production of toms and hens and up 27.4 percent compared to the inventory on December 31st 2022. The December 31st 2023 value was 20.2 percent above the November 30th 2023 level. This change is consistent with seasonal demand.

• The Whole Turkey category of 74.8 million lbs. representing 30.6 percent of total storage of 244.1 million lbs. on December 31st 2023 was 38.1 percent higher than the adjusted inventory for the previous month and 9.1 percent higher than on December 31st 2022.

• Tom carcasses in storage increased by 3.2 percent from December 31st 2022 to 38.9 million lbs. on December 31st 2023. Tom carcasses increased 16.1 percent during December 2023 compared to the previous month of November consistent with seasonal demand.
• Hen carcasses in storage increased by 16.3 percent from December 2022 to 35.9 million lbs. on December 31st 2023. Hen carcasses increased 73.5 percent during December 2023 compared to the previous month of November 2023 due to seasonal demand.
• Breasts in storage increased 99.0 percent from December 31st 2022 to 64.0 million lbs. on December 31st 2023 up 14.6 percent from the previous month of November 2023.
• The “Other” and “Unclassified” categories collectively amounted to 94.1 million lbs. or 38.5 percent of inventory on December 31st 2023. The magnitude of these two non-specified categories suggests that the USDA should attempt to classify product more accurately as to specific product.

December 2023 Production

According to the USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on January 25th covering, December 2023, comprising 21 working days:-

• During December 2023, 15.6 million young turkeys were processed, 336,000 birds or 2.1 percent less than in December 2022;
• Total live weight in December 2023 attained 493.2 million lbs., 1.89 million lbs. or 3.7 percent less than in December 2022;
• Average live weight in December 2023 was 31.55 lbs., up 0.52 lbs. or 1.6 percent more than in December 2022;
• RTC in December attained 390.9 million lbs., down 18.9 million lbs., or 4.6 percent from December 2022 with a yield of 79.3 percent;
• The proportion of frozen product in December 2023 attained 36.2 percent of total RTC produced;
• During December 2023 ante-mortem condemnation attained 0.29 percent of live weight, compared to 0.29 percent in December 2022;
• During December 2023, 1.52 percent of RTC weight was condemned compared to 1.17 percent in December 2022.

Comments:

The seasonal increase in December 2023 inventory is evident. The ratio of toms to hens slaughtered attained 1.0 to 0.9 year-to-date.

U.S. exports of turkey products in 2022 attained 184,837 metric tons, down 25.6 percent from 2021 (248,369 metric tons). Value decreased 3.6 percent to $642 million ($666 million in 2021). Unit price increased 29.5 percent from 2021 to $3,473 per ton. 

Export data for turkey products during the first eleven months of 2023 and the provisional production and consumption data for 2023 are posted in this edition. Over the first eleven months of 2023 volume of turkey exports attained 202,803 metric tons up 18.5 percent from the corresponding months in 2022. Value was down 2.2 percent to $578 million. Unit value was down 17.4 percent to $2,850 per metric ton denoting export of lower priced products.

From January 2022 through late-December 2023 losses of turkeys depleted as a result of HPAI attained approximately 14.1 million birds in eight states. This volume is equivalent to the combined production of toms and hens over 3.8 week with an average of 3.7 million per week. Incident cases have abated consistent with the departure of migratory waterfowl southward along all four U.S. flyways over areas with a concentration of turkey production.