Rabobank, with an extensive staff of analysts, has reviewed trends in the major broiler producing and consuming regions of the world. Although feed costs are expected to decline, efficiency will be necessary to maintain positive margins. Disease is the predominant risk along with geopolitical considerations including the ongoing war in Ukraine and uncertainty regarding the Middle East.
- Moderate expansion is anticipated in the U.S. with a continuing trend towards domestic consumption of wings and legs but with a proportional decline in breast meat resulting in accumulation of stock. Exports to Mexico and Cuba will continue but China will decline as a significant importer of U.S. products.
- Chicken production and consumption in the E.U. will persist with increased exports from Ukraine moderating prices.
- China will undergo fluctuation in demand based on the macroeconomic situation. Disease and domestic demand will be important considerations in China.
- Brazil will see a 4 to 5 percent increase in output with strong exports to China and new markets in Africa as occasioned by HPAI. Producers will benefit from lower feed costs associated with bountiful harvests of both corn and soybeans due to favorable weather conditions.
- Thailand will experience over production despite high exports.
- Japan will undergo a contraction in consumption, especially in the food service sector. Rabobank considers that demand will be influenced by price, again a result of a persistently weak Yen limiting imports.